One of the most increasingly important questions confronting Sierra Leoneans about the ruling Sierra Leone People’s party (SLPP) is whether the party will survive itself in power after the end of President Julius Maada Bio’s presidency. President Bio has been the central figure in the SLPP’s modern political journey, leading the party to victory in 2018 and securing re-election, albeit controversially in 2023.
But 2028 presents an entirely different political equation because President Bio will no longer be the presidential candidate. The party must therefore confront the difficult task of transferring the political capital of the Bio presidency to a new leader capable not only of uniting the SLPP but also of persuading voters that the party deserves another opportunity to govern. President Bio has himself called on the SLPP to prepare for the 2028 elections, underscoring the importance of unity, discipline and political preparedness. Yet preparation alone will not be enough. The coming election could become a referendum on the SLPP’s record, its credibility and its ability to offer Sierra Leoneans a convincing vision beyond the Bio era.
One of the most serious challenges facing the SLPP is the growing perception among sections of the population that there is a significant gap between political promises and everyday realities. Critics have pointed to economic hardship, the cost of living, unemployment, energy challenges, governance controversies and what they regard as failures to fulfill important campaign promises. The issue is not simply that governments make mistakes—every government does. The deeper political danger arises when citizens begin to believe that political promises cannot be trusted or that official explanations do not correspond with their lived experiences. Once a government loses the benefit of the doubt, rebuilding public confidence becomes extremely difficult. By 2028, voters are unlikely to judge the SLPP solely on speeches, statistics or political rhetoric. They will judge it through practical questions that affect their daily lives: Can I afford food? Can I find employment? Can my business survive? Can I afford education for my children? Is electricity reliable? Can my family access quality healthcare? Are there genuine opportunities for young people? These are the questions that ultimately determine whether citizens feel that a government has succeeded or failed.
The economy, therefore, could become the real battlefield of 2028. The SLPP may point to infrastructure, programmes, policies and other achievements, but its political challenge will be convincing ordinary citizens that these accomplishments have translated into meaningful improvements in their lives. Economic statistics may tell one story, while household experiences tell another. If families continue to struggle with high living costs and young people remain frustrated by limited opportunities, the opposition will have fertile ground on which to build its campaign. This is where the SLPP’s credibility will be tested most severely. The party must demonstrate measurable achievements, acknowledge shortcomings honestly and convince voters that its next chapter will represent genuine renewal rather than simply the continuation of the status quo. Failure to do so could transform dissatisfaction into a powerful electoral movement.
Another major test will be the question of succession. The SLPP must find a candidate capable of uniting the party after Bio and, more importantly, expanding its support beyond its traditional base. A bitter or highly personalised succession struggle could weaken the party before the general election even begins. Internal factions, competing ambitions and disagreements over leadership could become more damaging than attacks from the opposition. A ruling party can possess enormous political resources and still lose an election if it enters the contest divided. The eventual SLPP flagbearer will therefore need more than party loyalty; he or she will need credibility, national appeal, political discipline and the ability to convince undecided voters that the SLPP has something new to offer. The challenge is particularly significant because the APC remains the SLPP’s principal national rival. If the All People’s Congress succeeds in presenting itself as a united, reformed and credible government-in-waiting, every weakness within the SLPP will become politically more consequential.
Nevertheless, it would be premature to declare the SLPP defeated before the 2028 campaign has properly begun. The party remains a formidable political organisation with a substantial support base, and political fortunes can change dramatically. The SLPP could still recover public confidence if it addresses legitimate concerns, demonstrates tangible results, manages its succession process effectively and presents a candidate capable of appealing to voters beyond its traditional supporters. But the warning signs cannot simply be dismissed. The central political question is no longer whether the SLPP wants to retain power; it is whether it can persuade Sierra Leoneans that it has earned another mandate. For its opponents, the message will be simple: “You have had your opportunity; now give someone else a chance.” The SLPP must answer with an equally powerful argument: “Judge us by what we have achieved, not merely by what our opponents say.”
Ultimately, 2028 could become either a routine election or a defining political referendum on the SLPP era. If voters conclude that the government’s promises were repeatedly unmet, economic hardship became too burdensome, governance fell short of expectations and the party’s successor represents more of the same, then the SLPP could indeed find itself standing at the political exit door. But if it can demonstrate credible achievements, rebuild trust, unite behind a compelling successor and offer a persuasive vision for the future, it can still mount a serious defence of its record. The greatest danger for the SLPP, therefore, is not simply losing President Bio. It is losing the argument about what should come after President Bio. The ballot box will ultimately decide, but one political truth remains undeniable: no government can rely indefinitely on promises, explanations and slogans. Eventually, citizens demand results—and when that moment arrives, the exit door can open very quickly.