The 7th March, 2018 national elections will be held amid widespread public disenchantment against the kleptocratic and tribalist ruling All People’s Congress (APC) party government, whose decade of imprudent mismanagement of the economy is well documented and an open book for even the uneducated.
The Ernest Bai Koroma’s “New APC”, to quote his old friend, Charles Francis Margai, came to power on the platform of fighting corruption. But by the time he leaves office, after the 2018 elections, he would have left Sierra Leone more corrupt than it was when his predecessor, the suave and God-fearing former UN Civil Servant, Tejan Kabbah, handed over the baton of leadership to him.
On completion of his second and final term of office, President Ernest Bai Koroma will step down and usher in a new head of government after crucial presidential and legislative elections in March next year; leaving a score card on corruption with nothing to write home about.
Without any attempt to underrate the chances of other political parties, particularly the Alliance Democratic Party (ADP) of Mohamed Kamarainba Mansaray, the C4C of former Vice President, Chief Alhaji Sam Sumana and whatever political party, the presidential wannabe, Dr. Kandeh Kolleh Yumkella end up with, elections in Sierra Leone are still widely viewed as a two horse race between the two traditional political parties – the ruling APC and the main opposition SLPP.
To their credit, both political parties are well structured, have the biggest following, and are firmly rooted in the hearts and minds of the people. But with the rising cost of living, coupled with the exponential level of unemployment, the APC is set to face the biggest political challenge since the Second Republic.
One doesn’t have to be a clairvoyant to know that the presidential candidate of the SLPP, Rtd. Brig. Julius Maada Bio, is well on course to win the next presidential election.
APC Has Now Chosen A Presidential Candidate
What is increasingly clear, from the choice of a little known individual, Dr. Samura M. W. Kamara, is that there is now a big fall-out from the convention in Makeni. The moment President Koroma chose his favoured candidate for the presidency in the 2018 election all roads became open and clear for a Maada Bio victory.
Flag Bearer For Sale
At the moment, the APC has a serious and a more than herculean task to sell the candidacy of Dr. Samura Kamara. Besides being a difficulty to sell, reports are flying around the social media and in Sierra Leone that Dr. Kamara is not what he claims to be. This revolves around his claim that he is a PhD degree holder from a university in Wales. Nothing has yet convinced the average Sierra Leonean that he has a PhD. Yes, nothing.
Besides the allegations of carrying a fake PhD, supporters, largely from the assumed stronghold of the APC, are disappointed in President Ernest Koroma and the APC for presenting to them a candidate not favoured by them. Let nobody fool you, all the peace missions of the entire APC hierarchy are nothing but fighting to fill the gap lost as a result of making a wrong choice of candidate.
If any other thing bothers the APC more than anything else, it is how they can convince Port Loko district, Bombali, Kambia, Kono, Freetown, Bo and other areas in the south, to take heart and follow the dictates of President Koroma by having to swallow the bitter pill, otherwise the hemlock.
APC Chewed More Than It Can Swallow
If Maada Bio had been restless, while waiting to hear from the APC about their favoured flag bearer, he should now be rest assured that the APC has chewed more than they can swallow. The APC has two compounding problems. They must first of all convince the party faithful to swallow the bitter pill. After that they also have to convince Sierra Leoneans about their abysmal stewardship for the past ten years or so. What a big task for the party that is known for the 99 tactics!
So in terms of name recognition, Maada Bio does not need to define himself any more. It is the APC that has that onus. So Dr. Samura Kamara now has the herculean task of matching up with Maada Bio in terms of name-recognition and national acceptability and appeal. Mind you, the choice of Dr. Samura Kamara has triggered discontent within the ruling party, and this will prove disastrous in terms of the party and the candidate’s preparation for the 2018.
Bio is a Popular Brand Name
A politician is defined not by his wealth of experience or number of PhD certificates he acquires from IV League Universities, but by his ability to convince and mobilize a critical mass of the population to further his political aspirations. Presently, in Sierra Leone, Maada Bio is one of the few politicians who enjoy considerable support among the youth.
He will be going to the election as a readymade candidate with a brand name that is widely acceptable nationally and internationally. While most of, if not, all of the other candidates will be craving for national appeal, the SLPP man will only be building on the political gains he has already made during the 2012 election.
Bio popularity was tested in 2012 when he contested against President Ernest Bai Koroma, who even at the pinnacle of his popularity, it took the bravery and heartlessness of Dr. Christiana Thorpe to cook figures for an undeserved victory for the incumbent in that election.
Bio’s Impressive pedigree
Bio has an impressive national pedigree probably more than any of those vying for the country’s leadership in the 2018 election. At a very tender age, he abandoned the desire to pursue higher learning after leaving high school and laid his life in the defence of Sierra Leone at the height of the rebel war, a feat which only a patriot can accomplish.
Another of Bio’s greatest political trump card is that he kept the promise of returning the country to a democratic civilian rule four years after the NPRC kicked out almost three decades APC one party dictatorship. The former NPRC strongman carved a niche for himself in the annals of democratic Sierra Leone when he handed over the baton of leadership to the winner of the presidential election in 1996, President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah.
A Changed Narrative
Bio will be going to the election completely absolved of all lies and propaganda mounted against him at the behest of the APC. The thick skin former soldier has successfully shrugged off blatant lies deriding him as a violent man in a campaign of calumny perpetrated by the ruling APC in the 2012 election.
In many ways, over the years, he has proved his detractors wrong in all aspects that he is a violent man. For instance, he warned his supporters against avenging the injury he sustained in the hands of the APC thugs in Bo, while on legitimate campaign there in 2012 election. On several occasions, Maada Bio has warned supporters to refrain from any violent confrontation with the state apparatus as was the case when he got wounded by APC thugs in Bo.
By changing the narrative means that his campaign team will now exert their energy promoting, instead of defending him.
Sympathy
Undoubtedly, Bio has suffered more vilification than any other politician in recent history. But he has weathered the storm in a spectacular fashion with his unruffled and unassuming disposition which has won him more sympathy and admiration over the years. With such a huge army of sympathizers, Bio’s detractors will have a difficult task manufacturing new lies against him knowing that it will be rebuffed by enthusiastic supporters.
Bio’s second Presidential bidding will have strong sympathetic undertones especially with the APC’s abysmal handling of the country coupled with wide spread perception that the 2012 elections was in fact rigged in favour of the incumbent.
SLPP’s Legacy
Bio, of course, would be contesting the election under the ticket of the main opposition SLPP, the party which won Sierra Leone’s Independence and which brought peace to the country after eleven years of debilitating civil war, which started under the APC of Joseph Saidu Momoh.
With the SLPP’s remarkable record of fiscal prudence and enviable management of the economy, the APC candidate would have a herculean task convincing people of fiscal management. Just imagine this, the SLPP of President Tejan Kabbah left behind a sound and debt free economy with inflation in the single digit; a hefty FOREX reserve to back up the Leone in addition to the whopping five hundred billion Leones lodged at the Bank of Sierra Leone.
Today, the economy is in shambles, with the Leones chasing the Zimbabwean dollar in terms of hyperinflation. The economy of the country is in tatters, as one economist once said, “Majority of Sierra Leoneans are miracle workers living on US$1 a day with not even a square meal, except for the affluent.
Most of the mining companies have folded up, leading to zero foreign exchange earnings; people can hardly afford to make ends meet in the face of mountain skyrocketing prices of basic commodities. The sound economic footing of the country, bequeathed by the SLPP government to the APC in 2007, has, after all, evaporated into thin air, leaving the people to wallow in abject poverty.
A sound economy, being the engine of growth for any country, people have started expressing their disgust against the APC for making life difficult for the average Sierra Leonean; that they have promised to teach them a bitter lesson by voting them out in the forthcoming elections of 2018; an application of the Rousseau`s Social Contract.
As recent as September 29, 2017, the IMF issued a damning report after a review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) thus:
“Sierra Leone’s economy is estimated to slow down to 5.6 percent in 2017, from 6.3 percent in 2016, mainly on account of reduced activities in the non-mining sector. Inflation rose to 18 percent in August. The government budget for 2017 will need to address lower than budgeted revenue, and a shortfall in donor receipts. The current account deficit is expected to widen to 21.5 percent of GDP”
Demography
Provisional Biometric Voters Registration figures released by the National Elections Commission already points to an SLPP victory. Out of a total of 3,178,663 registered voters, 40% are in the South and East, the stronghold of the SLPP and 60% are from the North and West, the heartland of the governing All People’s Congress (APC). The percentage is not significantly different from that in 2012.
Towards the 2018 elections, Bio is the single most popular candidate in the country. There is no candidate in the south and east whose popularity is 20% that of Bio. Bio is popular in every village in the south and east. Charles Margai has lost credibility and is considered too old to liberate people. He is no more attractive to voters and was largely eliminated in 2012 as evidenced by the loss of 10 parliamentary seats and almost all local council seats.
The percentage share of voters, registered in the north and north/west, dropped from 34.4% to 32.4%; whereas the shares in the east and south are not significantly different. The difference between the south and east and the north is 224,256 in 2017 compared to 170,917 in 2012 in favour of the south and east.”
Assuming APC secures all votes in the north and SLPP secures all in the south and east, this means, APC needs to lead the SLPP in the West by at least 224,256. Based on the trends in the last 6 by-elections in the north, the growing voter apathy, caused by continued hardship, perceptions of marginalization and political factors, notably the recent boundary delimitation and chiefdom de-amalgamation as well as the fallout from the selection of APC flagbearer, the share of APC votes in the north is expected to drop from over 80% to 65-70%. The chances of SLPP capturing at least 150,000 votes representing 15% of northern votes are high.
Analysts believe that with the declining popularity of the APC in the western area, largely due to high cost of living and rampant corruption as well as emergence of new political parties, it is impossible for the APC to retain its 65% control of the western area. The obvious beneficiary of defectors from the APC, according to some, is more likely to be the SLPP if they intensify their outreach to youth groups in Freetown and surroundings.
Although the ADP stand chances of grabbing a large chunk of APC votes, most voters will perceive the SLPP as the alternative, particularly when they would not want to be on the losing side. Because of this, most swing voters reasonably do not join small parties. They prefer to be associated with large parties that have chances of winning elections. Already, in most public transports and joints around Freetown, the candidate for the, Maada Bio is considered as the next option. The best APC can secure in the western area, given the ethnic composition, is 50%. SLPP has a good chance to increase its western area vote from about 30% to 40%. This depends on how smartly they sell out their messages, reach out to youths and protect their votes.
The ADP and other parties can at least secure 10% of the votes in the western area.
Development in Neighbouring Countries
The wave of change, blowing through West Africa, is likely to have a telling effect on the 2018 presidential and legislative elections in Sierra Leone. Starting with Nigeria, where the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan lost to Gen. Buhari, to Ghana’s Mahama, and lately the long-serving dictator of tiny West Africa state, The Gambia, are still fresh in the minds of people. Voters are likely to repeat same here and the indicators are fast rearing their ugly heads with APC allegedly losing confidence in the credibility of the National Electoral Commission (NEC).
Choice of Running-Mate
The registration figures are already a good foundation for SLPP victory. All what Maada Bio needs is to identify a popular running-mate, somebody who can bring the extra votes needed to accomplish the task. Thankfully there are many other popular Sierra Leoneans who can add value to the ticket and indeed he has quite an avalanche of loyalists both at home and in the Diaspora.
Strategy For Kono
There is no gainsaying the SLPP has massive following in Kono District. But for a district that is considered a swing state, Maada Bio needs to redesign and firm up a workable and/or winnable strategy for Kono. One such winnable strategy of bringing an influx of the Kono ethnic group would be the reassurance that the district is strategic and potent in the SLPP make-up as was the case of the Rev. Paul Dumbar. Once that is done the 2018 presidential race for Bio is a foregone conclusion.