As Sierra Leone inches closer to the 2028 general elections, political dynamics are shifting, and the All People’s Congress (APC) is emerging as a formidable force poised to reclaim power. The political landscape in the country is increasingly tilting against the ruling Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP), creating an environment where the APC stands a strong chance of winning the upcoming elections. Various factors, including public dissatisfaction, economic hardship, internal strife within the SLPP, and the APC’s growing support base, suggest that the opposition party is in a prime position to stage a comeback.
The Growing Discontent with the SLPP Government:
One of the strongest indicators that the APC may win in 2028 is the widespread disillusionment with the current SLPP-led government under President Julius Maada Bio. The administration has faced severe criticism for its handling of the economy, governance issues, and failure to fulfill many of its campaign promises.
Economic hardship remains the most pressing concern for Sierra Leoneans. The cost of living has skyrocketed, inflation has eroded household incomes, and unemployment remains high. Many citizens feel betrayed by the SLPP’s inability to deliver on its promise of economic prosperity, and as a result, frustration is mounting. The “Feed Salone” project, which was supposed to boost food security, has failed to yield tangible results, further fueling public anger.
Additionally, governance issues such as corruption, nepotism, and lack of transparency have eroded trust in the SLPP administration. The Bio-led government has been accused of favoring certain political and tribal groups while sidelining others, creating a sense of division among citizens. If these trends continue, they will serve as a catalyst for voters to shift their support toward the APC in 2028.
APC’s Strong Support Base and Political Resilience:
Despite losing power in 2018, the APC remains a deeply rooted political force with a significant support base across Sierra Leone. The party has historically enjoyed strong backing in the Northern Province, Western Area, and parts of the East. These regions continue to be loyal to the APC, making it a viable contender for the presidency in 2028.
Over the past few years, the APC has demonstrated political resilience by reorganizing its internal structures and addressing past weaknesses. The party has learned from its mistakes in the 2018 and 2023 elections and is working to present a more unified front. If the APC can maintain this level of cohesion, it will have a strategic advantage over the SLPP, which is currently experiencing internal divisions.
The Infighting inside SLPP:
The SLPP’s internal struggles are another major factor that could work in favor of the APC in 2028. There is growing tension within the ruling party, particularly regarding the succession battle for the party’s leadership. President Bio will not be on the ballot in 2028 due to constitutional term limits, and this has created a power struggle among those who seek to replace him.
Two key figures—Chief Minister David Sengeh and Vice President Mohamed Juldeh Jalloh—are among the potential contenders for the SLPP flagbearership. However, their ambitions are causing serious divisions within the party. Some factions within the SLPP believe that Juldeh Jalloh, who hails from the north, lacks the grassroots support needed to lead the party, while others argue that Sengeh, despite his youthful appeal, lacks the political experience required to maintain party unity.
This internal power struggle is weakening the SLPP’s focus on governance and could lead to voter apathy among its supporters. If the SLPP enters the 2028 elections as a divided house, the APC will have a significant electoral advantage.
The Failure of Key SLPP Policies:
Several flagship policies of the SLPP government have not delivered the expected results, further damaging its credibility among voters. The Free Quality Education (FQE) program, which was once hailed as a transformative initiative, has come under scrutiny due to poor implementation, inadequate infrastructure, and declining educational standards. Many parents and teachers are disillusioned with the system, and this dissatisfaction could translate into lost votes for the SLPP.
The healthcare sector has also seen little improvement despite promises of reform. Hospitals remain underfunded, medical supplies are scarce, and healthcare professionals are frequently on strike due to unpaid salaries. These failures make it difficult for the SLPP to campaign on a platform of progress and development.
APC’s Potential Presidential Candidate:
A key determinant of APC’s success in 2028 will be its choice of presidential candidate. Unlike the SLPP, which is struggling with internal leadership battles, the APC has several strong contenders who can unify the party and attract widespread support.
One of the most discussed potential candidates is Dr. Samura Kamara, who was the party’s flagbearer in 2018 and 2023. Kamara remains a popular figure within the APC and has garnered significant sympathy due to the legal battles he has faced under the Bio administration. If he is cleared to run, he could serve as a rallying figure for the party.
Another strong possibility is Joseph Fitzgerald Kamara, the former Minister of Justice and a respected legal mind. His clean record, intellectual appeal, and legal expertise make him a formidable choice who could appeal to both urban and rural voters.
Regardless of who emerges as the flagbearer, the APC has the advantage of time to carefully strategize and present a candidate who can capitalize on SLPP’s weaknesses.
Shifting Political Alliances and Voter Sentiment:
As Sierra Leone’s political climate evolves, new alliances are forming, and voter sentiment is shifting. The National Grand Coalition (NGC) and the Coalition for Change (C4C), which played a crucial role in previous elections, have lost relevance, with their supporters drifting toward either the APC or SLPP. Given the current dissatisfaction with the ruling government, it is likely that more of these swing voters will align with the APC.
Additionally, young voters who were promised a better future by the SLPP in 2018 and 2023 are now disenchanted. Many of them are unemployed and struggling to make ends meet. If the APC can successfully engage with this demographic and present a compelling vision for the future, it could secure a significant portion of the youth vote.
The Role of International Observers and Electoral Reforms:
One of the major concerns in Sierra Leone’s past elections has been electoral transparency. The 2023 elections were marred by allegations of irregularities, and international observers raised concerns about the credibility of the results. If reforms are implemented to enhance transparency and prevent electoral manipulation, the APC stands a better chance of winning fairly in 2028.
The international community will likely play a more active role in ensuring a free and fair election. If credible institutions such as ECOWAS, the African Union, and the European Union closely monitor the process, it will reduce the chances of electoral malpractice that could favor the incumbent party.
Conclusion: APC’s Path to Victory in 2028:
All signs indicate that the APC has a strong chance of winning the 2028 elections in Sierra Leone. The mounting frustration with the SLPP government, economic decline, internal divisions within the ruling party, and the APC’s renewed strength all point to a political shift in the country.
However, for the APC to secure victory, it must remain united, choose a strong and credible presidential candidate, and engage in grassroots mobilization. The party must also present a clear, realistic policy agenda that addresses the concerns of ordinary Sierra Leoneans.
If the APC can effectively harness these opportunities and avoid internal conflicts, it stands a high chance of returning to power in 2028. The political tide is turning, and if current trends continue, the APC may very well be the next ruling party of Sierra Leone.