Signs that the probe on the election fraud of June 27, 2023 may not hold have crystallised as government still drags their feet, and question about what will come when the Election Investigation Committee (EIC) fails to deliver on their mandate filters through the public.
An answer to the question is not yet provided but several observers in the media and the public could not rule out conflict as the probe represents Sierra Leone’s last hope for the moment.
By their snail-pace moves, it has shown clearly that government seems not ready for the probe as portrayed by the Chief Minister who said they would cooperate only if the main opposition, All People’s Congress (APC) produces the runaway prisoners from the Pademba Road prison facility.
This condition is just too tough for the APC who knew not when the prison facilities were broken into.
Other sources have also told this press that SLPP will not take part in the probe that appears to be a shot in their leg as they already know that the investigation will not favour them. Monday 27th November, 2023, a day after the attacks, was the stipulated time for commencement of the probe, but no government official showed up. The APC co-Chair, Dr Kaifala Marah vented out his frustration in a tweet about the unjustified absence of ruling party officials.
Attempt at conducting the election investigation began after much pressure from the international community particularly the UK High Commissioner, Lisa Chesney who urged the Chief Minister, David Moinina Sengeh to put in place the necessary structures that will facilitate the investigation.
To date, no sign that the investigation will start; everyone has been kept in the dark as no government official has updated the public about what government has been doing or what is holding them back.
The main talking points is the arrest of former President Ernest Bai Koroma and associates as well as persons accused of plotting to overthrow President Julius Maada Bio.
Exact time for their arraignment, at the moment, remains one of the biggest controversies eclipsing the election probe thus lending credence to widespread allegations that the coup claim was a mere distraction, but a court of law would prove that in coming days.
If the investigation fails, three options which are rerun, run off or fresh elections come to mind although a resistance by government cannot be completely ruled out. From the outset, the people of Sierra Leone have always called for a rerun of the election which fails to meet recognised standards of probity.
June, 2023 is the first time in Sierra Leone where an election is held without publication of results talk less of the voter’s register.
From the outset, Mohamed Konneh has been stoutly defending his action that the Electoral Commission for Sierra Leone (ECSL) is an independent entity, and therefore not subject to the direction or control of any person or authority.
He also resisted calls for the publication of the results by citing the right to privacy which, he said, should be respected at all cost. The register, he says, contains voters’ personal details which must not be brought within public domain.
The ECSL boss has also invoked the sovereignty principle as a shield against looking into the election processes implying that he is ready to go to great lengths to undermine the investigation.
Looked from a different perspective, one could argue that another option of a rerun is open to Sierra Leone in a situation where Konneh accepts to produce the real results which would show that no candidate got the 55 per cent threshold needed to avoid a second round voting.
But, many say, this option would be difficult to realise as the mere production of the genuine results amount to a crime of subverting the will of Sierra Leoneans which no one knows where it would land the ECSL chief.
As indications have clearly shown, Konneh would prefer the situation remaining as it is to producing the results, an act which, many say, will take him to the gallows. If a rerun and run off fail, it will be difficult for fresh elections to fail as sources say the election investigation will continue even if government officials refuse to show up at the committee.
Sources have intimated this press that APC and SLPP’s presence in the committee is a mere representation while the real work is done by international investigators.
But, it will be in SLPP’s best interest to take part in the committee to forestall claims of foul play in the not too distant future.
The committee, according to analysts, is just the same as the Biobele Georgewill commissions of inquiry which did not compel APC to appear but the judges advised that it will be helpful to them if they avail themselves and cooperate with the commissions as any findings will militate against APC.
Although APC did not appear at the commissions, almost all recommendations made were enforced as APC politicians’ houses, money and assets have been confiscated to the state.
The likes of late Minkailu Bah, former Education Minister and Momoh Conteh, Chairman of National Telecommunications Commission were posthumously dealt with raising question of whether the dead are guilty of crime or not.
The Appeals Court, few days ago, also dismissed appeals by former President Ernest Bai Koroma and Dr Samura Kamara, APC’s flag-bearer and Presidential candidate with imposition of fines and handing them over to the Anti-Corruption Commission for criminal investigation taking place simultaneously.
Woe betides them if their defences are knocked out by the state. The same model, according to analysts, will be applied to the proposed election probe as government has to comply with EIC’s recommendations whether they are present at the EIC or not.
Without doubt, the June polls has plunged Sierra Leone in an uncertain state as its outcome remains one of the most controversial topics at the moment as the main opposition, All People’s congress claimed victory while the ruling Sierra Leone People’s Party said they won the elections.
SLPP’s claim however was not supported by local and international observers who said the election “lacked transparency.”
EU, AU, Commonwealth, ECOWAS, Carter Centre Foundation and other inter-governmental agencies spoke with one voice in condemning outright the election results a move that moved the world’s community of nations to isolate Sierra Leone as President Julius Maada Bio is not recognised with allegations of votes stealing trumpeted against him. Bio’s government also faces funding cut making it difficult for him to govern.
Convinced that they won the election, APC failed to participate in the state governance project as parliamentarians, mayors, chairmen and councillors refused to take their seats in parliament and councils with Sierra Leone bearing the looks of a one-party state. Without a functioning parliament and council, ECOWAS, Commonwealth and EU parliaments did not recognise their Sierra Leonean counterparts who were appointed to represent them in the diaspora.
Worried by the post-election stalemate which no knew where it would end, the international community (Commonwealth, AU and ECOWAS) mediators arrived in Sierra Leone to broker a peace deal which every party is expected to abide by. But, what happens where a rerun, run off or fresh election fails?