By Sylvester Samai
The 2028 election in Sierra Leone is shaping up to be a defining moment in the nation’s political history, a moment that will demand strength, resilience, and strategic brilliance from all involved. The stakes have never been higher, and the political landscape is as volatile as it is complex. As we edge closer to this crucial juncture, it becomes increasingly clear that this election is not for the weak, the indecisive, or the unprepared. It is a battle of ideologies, power, and the very soul of the nation, where only the most resolute will emerge victorious.
To understand the magnitude of the 2028 election, one must first delve into the political events that have led us here. The last decade in Sierra Leone has been marked by a series of contentious elections, governance challenges, and an increasingly polarized electorate. The 2018 election saw the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) rise to power under President Julius Maada Bio, a victory that was followed by a series of controversies and criticisms. The APC, though ousted from power, remained a formidable opposition force, nursing wounds from their loss while recalibrating their strategies for a comeback.
The 2023 election was a bitterly fought contest, with allegations of electoral malpractice, voter intimidation, and widespread dissatisfaction with the SLPP’s governance. Yet, President Bio managed to secure a second term, albeit amidst growing public discontent. This period saw the opposition APC regrouping under new leadership, with a renewed focus on addressing the grievances of their supporters and broadening their appeal to undecided voters.
As we approach 2028, the political environment is more charged than ever. Both the SLPP and APC are facing internal strife, with factions within each party vying for control and influence. The electorate, weary of unfulfilled promises and economic hardships, is more discerning and demanding. The emergence of third-party candidates and independent voices has further complicated the electoral calculus, making the 2028 election a contest where only the most formidable and adaptable will thrive.
For the ruling SLPP, the 2028 election is a fight for survival. After a decade in power, the party’s track record is under intense scrutiny. President Bio’s administration has faced criticism for its handling of the economy, allegations of corruption, and its perceived inability to deliver on key campaign promises. The “Feed Salone” initiative, which was supposed to transform the agricultural sector and ensure food security, has been labelled a failure by many critics. Furthermore, the promised of infrastructural developments, such as the much-publicized Lungi Bridge, remain unrealized dreams.
However, the SLPP is not without its strengths. The party still enjoys significant support in its traditional strongholds, and its grassroots network remains robust. The party’s leadership has also been adept at navigating the complex landscape of Sierra Leonean politics, using patronage and alliances to maintain its grip on power. Yet, internal divisions threaten to unravel the party from within. The ambition of the current Chief Minister to succeed President Bio has created a rift within the party, with some factions rallying behind the First Lady, who has also been rumored to have political ambitions.
These internal power struggles could prove disastrous for the SLPP if not carefully managed. The party’s success in 2028 will hinge on its ability to present a united front and a compelling vision for Sierra Leone’s future. It will also need to address the growing disillusionment among the electorate, particularly the youth, who are increasingly skeptical of the political establishment.
For the APC, the 2028 election is an opportunity to redeem itself and reclaim power. The party, which ruled Sierra Leone for over a decade before being ousted in 2018, has had time to reflect on its past mistakes and re-strategize. The leadership under former President Ernest Bai Koroma has faced criticism for its role in the party’s defeat, but there is a growing sense that the APC is ready for resurgence.
The APC’s strategy for 2028, will likely focus on a contrast of its governance record with that of the SLPP’s questionable ten-year tenure. The party will emphasize its achievements in infrastructure, healthcare, and education, while highlighting the SLPP’s failures. However, the APC is also grappling with its internal challenges. The party has yet to decide on a presidential candidate, with several key figures vying for the nomination. This lack of clarity could weaken the party’s campaign if not resolved swiftly.
Moreover, the APC must also contend with the rise of third-party candidates and independent voices. In the 2023 election, several independent candidates performed surprisingly well, indicating a shift in the electorate’s preferences. To win in 2028, the APC will need to expand its base beyond its traditional supporters and appeal to the growing number of undecided voters.
One of the most significant developments in Sierra Leone’s political landscape is the rise of third-party candidates. In a country where politics has traditionally been dominated by the SLPP and APC, the emergence of new political movements and independent candidates is a game-changer. These candidates, often young and dynamic, are challenging the status quo and offering alternative visions for Sierra Leone’s future.
The success of these ‘candidates will depend on their ability to galvanize support from disillusioned voters who feel let down by the two main parties. They will also need to build strong grassroots networks and present clear, actionable policy proposals. However, the path to victory for third-party candidates is fraught with challenges. They lack the financial resources and organizational structures of the SLPP and APC, and they face an uphill battle in gaining visibility and credibility.
Nevertheless, the 2028 election could be a watershed moment for Sierra Leonean politics if a third-party candidate manages to break through. Such a development would not only shake up the political landscape but could also force the SLPP and APC to reevaluate their strategies and adapt to the changing dynamics.
The youth and civil society will play a crucial role in the 2028 election. Sierra Leone has a young population, with over 60% under the age of 35. This demography is increasingly vocal and politically aware, demanding more from their leaders and pushing for change. The youth were instrumental in the 2018 and 2023 elections, and their influence will only grow in 2028.
Civil society organizations, including non-governmental organizations (NGOs), activist groups, and the media, are also expected to play a significant role in shaping the election. These groups will be crucial in holding the candidates accountable, ensuring that the electoral process is free and fair, and mobilizing voter participation.
The involvement of youth and civil society could be a double-edged sword for the political parties. On one hand, their support could be a decisive factor in the election. On the other hand, their scrutiny could expose the parties’ weaknesses and hold them to a higher standard of accountability. Political leaders who dismiss or underestimate the power of these groups do so at their peril.
The 2028 election will not only be a domestic affair but will also attract significant international attention. Sierra Leone’s strategic location and its recent history of civil conflict and post-conflict recovery make it a focal point for regional and international actors. The international community, including organizations like the United Nations, the African Union, and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), will be keenly watching the election to ensure that it is conducted in a transparent and peaceful manner.
International observers will be crucial in monitoring the election, providing legitimacy to the process, and helping to mediate any disputes that arise. However, the involvement of external actors also introduces an element of complexity. The major political parties may seek to leverage international support to bolster their legitimacy or discredit their opponents, leading to a more contentious and polarized election.
Moreover, foreign interests, particularly from major powers with economic and strategic stakes in Sierra Leone, could influence the election. These external forces may seek to sway the outcome in favor of a candidate or party that aligns with their interests, potentially leading to tensions and accusations of interference.
As the 2028 election approaches, several challenges loom large. The first is the potential for electoral violence. Sierra Leone has a history of politically motivated violence, particularly during elections. The deep-seated divisions within the SLPP and APC, combined with the rise of third-party candidates, could exacerbate tensions and lead to violent clashes. Ensuring a peaceful election will require concerted efforts from all stakeholders, including the political parties, security forces, civil society, and the international community.
Another challenge is the integrity of the electoral process. Allegations of electoral malpractice have marred previous elections, eroding public trust in the system. For the 2028 election to be seen as legitimate, the National Electoral Commission (NEC) must conduct the election in a transparent and impartial manner. This will require adequate funding, training, and resources, as well as the cooperation of all political actors.
Finally, there is the challenge of governance post-election. Regardless of who wins, the next government will inherit a country facing significant economic and social challenges. The new administration will need to address issues such as unemployment, poverty, healthcare, education, and infrastructure development. Moreover, it will need to foster national unity and reconciliation in a country that remains deeply divided along political and ethnic lines.
The 2028 election in Sierra Leone is not for the weak. It is an election that will test the strength, resolve, and ingenuity of all involved. The SLPP and APC, both grappling with internal divisions and external pressures, will need to present compelling visions for the future and address the electorate’s growing discontent. Third-party candidates, though facing an uphill battle, have the potential to disrupt the traditional two-party system and bring fresh perspectives to the table.