Sierra Leone’s 2028 general elections are likely to become one of the most consequential political contests in the country’s recent history. The Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP), which has governed the country since 2018 under President Julius Maada Bio, enters the period before 2028 with the advantage of incumbency and an established political structure. In the 2023 elections, the SLPP won the presidency and secured 81 of the 135 parliamentary seats contested, while the All People’s Congress (APC) won 54 seats. Yet electoral victories create no permanent entitlement to power. Between now and 2028, a combination of economic pressures, public expectations, governance questions, opposition strategy, internal party dynamics and voter fatigue could fundamentally reshape the political landscape.
Perhaps the most powerful force capable of weakening the SLPP is the everyday economic experience of ordinary Sierra Leoneans. Elections are ultimately fought not only on political speeches and party colours but also on what citizens can afford to buy, whether businesses can survive, whether young people can find meaningful employment and whether families believe their standard of living is improving. The 2023 election itself was fought against concerns about the cost of living, inflation, taxation, fuel prices and electricity challenges. If voters reach 2028 believing that economic hardship has remained stubbornly high despite government promises, the political consequences could be severe. A government can survive criticism, but it becomes much harder to defend its record when citizens feel that their personal economic circumstances have not improved.
Youth unemployment and the aspirations of young Sierra Leoneans could become another decisive factor. Sierra Leone has a youthful population, and young voters are increasingly unwilling to regard politics simply as a contest between historical party loyalties. They want employment, skills, entrepreneurship, technology, affordable education, reliable electricity and genuine opportunities to build independent lives. If a significant number of young people conclude that neither government policies nor political appointments are creating sufficient opportunities for them, their frustration could become an important electoral force. The political party that successfully transforms youthful frustration into a credible programme for jobs and economic opportunity could attract voters who might otherwise remain loyal to traditional political identities.
Another major challenge is voter fatigue. After years in office, every government eventually becomes associated with the problems of the country it governs. Opposition parties can promise change; incumbents must explain why problems still exist. This is one of the inherent disadvantages of long-term incumbency. By 2028, voters may judge the SLPP not primarily on what it inherited in 2018 but on what it accomplished during its years in power. Roads, schools, hospitals, electricity, agriculture, employment, public-sector efficiency and the cost of living could therefore become part of a broader public assessment: Has the government delivered enough?
Trust in democratic institutions and the electoral process will also matter enormously. The 2023 elections generated significant controversy. The APC disputed the presidential result, while international observers and subsequent analyses raised questions concerning aspects of the transparency and presentation of the results. The European Union Election Observation Mission called for greater publication of disaggregated polling-station data, while later discussions between the government and opposition addressed electoral-system and electoral-management concerns. This history means that the credibility of the 2028 electoral process will itself be politically important. If citizens perceive institutions as independent, transparent and trustworthy, the eventual result is more likely to command acceptance. If trust deteriorates, however, the governing party could face a powerful backlash from voters demanding greater accountability and institutional reform.
The strength and unity of the opposition could be equally decisive. No governing party is defeated merely because people are dissatisfied with it; an alternative must convince voters that it can govern better. The APC remains the principal opposition force, having won 54 parliamentary seats in 2023. But the opposition’s effectiveness in 2028 will depend on whether it can transform political criticism into a coherent national alternative. Fragmented opposition parties may divide votes and unintentionally strengthen the incumbent. A united opposition, by contrast, could consolidate voters who want political change across regional, generational and partisan boundaries.
The opposition’s most powerful message may ultimately be the promise of change. After two presidential terms, the SLPP could face the psychological disadvantage of being perceived as the establishment. The opposition can present itself as a new beginning, while the ruling party must defend its record. If opposition leaders can offer a credible programme based on economic recovery, institutional reform, national cohesion, youth employment and improved public services, the desire for change could become stronger than traditional party loyalty.
At the same time, internal divisions within the SLPP could become a serious threat. Political parties often appear strongest when they are in government, but succession questions can expose hidden disagreements. As 2028 approaches, competing ambitions, disagreements over leadership, candidate selection and the distribution of political influence could weaken party unity. A divided governing party can lose an election that it might otherwise have been capable of winning. Political loyalty is frequently strongest when victory appears certain; when uncertainty emerges, internal factions can become increasingly visible.
Regional and generational political realignment could also influence the outcome. Sierra Leonean politics has historically been shaped by strong partisan identities and regional loyalties, but younger voters may be increasingly interested in performance rather than inherited political allegiance. If voters begin crossing traditional party boundaries in significant numbers, the electoral map could change considerably. The party that succeeds in appealing beyond its traditional base will have a major advantage.
There is also the broader question of national unity and political polarisation. The 2023 electoral period occurred amid political tensions, incitement and concerns about inflammatory rhetoric, although voting itself was largely peaceful according to the United Nations country analysis. If political polarisation intensifies before 2028, voters may increasingly demand leaders who can reduce confrontation and rebuild trust between competing political camps. A governing party perceived as contributing to division could face a backlash, while an opposition movement capable of presenting itself as inclusive and national in character could gain considerable ground.
Ultimately, however, the most important factor will be the judgment of the Sierra Leonean voter. Political parties can organise rallies, produce slogans and mobilise supporters, but elections are decided by citizens who make private assessments about their lives and their country’s direction. The SLPP cannot assume that its 2023 victory guarantees another victory in 2028. Likewise, the opposition cannot assume that dissatisfaction with the government automatically translates into electoral support for it.
The road to 2028 will therefore be a contest between performance and perception, continuity and change, experience and expectation. The SLPP will need to demonstrate that its years in government have produced tangible improvements that ordinary citizens can feel. The opposition will need to prove that it possesses not merely the desire to replace the government but the competence, unity and national vision required to govern.
The central lesson is simple: governments do not remain in power because they once won an election; they remain in power because they continue to persuade citizens that they deserve another mandate. If by 2028 Sierra Leoneans believe that economic hardship, unemployment, institutional distrust, political division and unmet expectations outweigh the government’s achievements, the SLPP could face a formidable electoral challenge. Conversely, if the government succeeds in improving living standards, strengthening institutions, expanding opportunities and restoring confidence, it may remain competitive.
The 2028 election, therefore, should not be viewed as a predetermined victory or defeat for any party. It will be a referendum on the direction of Sierra Leone. And when voters enter the polling booth, party history may matter—but the future they believe awaits them may matter even more.